Germany’s weak winds trigger record surge in gas-fired power 

Gas-fired electricity production in Germany jumped by a record 79% in November from the month before as utilities scrambled to offset a second straight month of sharply below-normal output from wind farms.

Wind power output has been 25% below year-prior levels in October and November due to slow wind speeds, depriving power firms of a key electricity source just as winter set in. Wind farms supplied 27% of German utility electricity in 2023.

To plug the resulting generation gap, utilities lifted gas-fired electricity production from 5.34 terawatt hours (TWh) in October to 9.55 TWh in November, data from energy think tank Ember shows.

That was the largest ever monthly rise in German gas-fired generation, and was accompanied by a jump in coal-fired production to 20-month highs as utilities also had to offset a drop in solar generation to the lowest level this year.

Wind output is forecast to return to around 6% above normal levels in December, according to LSEG, which should help ease the strain on Germany’s power systems before year-end.

But with solar generation set to fall further during the dead of winter, power firms may not be able to cut back on fossil-fuel output until well into 2025.

That means Germany’s power emissions, which are already at their highest since early 2023, may climb further in the months ahead before dropping again next spring.

DEALING WITH A DRAWN OUT ‘DUNKELFLAUTE’

A ‘Dunkelflaute’ or ‘dark wind lull’ is a period of low wind speeds that greatly curtail wind farm generation.

And Germany’s main wind farm areas have suffered from an extended lull since October, which is when wind generation largely held flat at around 10 TWh instead of climbing steadily on the usually brisk autumn winds.

The October wind generation total was the lowest for that month since 2016, and was a full 26% below the generation total during the same month in 2023.

Germany’s power producers have experienced wind lulls before, and can usually accommodate them for a few weeks by tweaking output from other sources.

But this year’s Dunkelflaute stretched into November as well, and kept wind generation to less than 12 TWh compared to nearly 16 TWh in November 2023.

That back-to-back wind shortfall meant that power firms had to rely on fossil fuels to not only make up for less-than-expected wind output, but to also raise total generation to meet higher system demand during winter.

NO REPRIEVE?

Wind forecasting models call for German wind generation to be around 6% above the long-term average in December, according to LSEG.

If that recovery materialises, German utilities will be able to deploy that extra power to balance system needs, and could potentially dial back generation from fossil fuel plants.

However, weather forecasts call for temperatures in Germany to average well below normal for the next two weeks, according to LSEG.

That means power firms may be forced to lift generation from all sources in order to meet higher heating demand.

That in turn will likely trigger a further climb in German power sector emissions, which hit nearly 19 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) and a 21-month high in November, according to Ember.

The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.