Theoretical upper limit for offshore wind energy extraction 

[Abstract] Offshore wind energy is key to energy transition, but its true potential is often overstated. As wind farms become larger and denser, they change the atmospheric boundary layer, reaching up to the strong geostrophic winds a few kilometers above the surface. Energy extraction depends on the vertical transfer of momentum from these high-altitude winds down to the turbines, which sets a physical ceiling on how much energy can harvested. A closed-form analytical model, validated against more than 420 years of operational data from 72 wind farms, defines this upper limit through a dimensionless Wind Farm Wind Factor, which condenses the key design and operational conditions of the wind farm, turbine, and site. A benchmark of national policy targets shows expectations of energy production up to 50% higher than can realistically be achieved. Such overestimation not only hides true energy costs but also underestimates power variability, integration, and curtailment risks, and it distorts policy pathways. When projections exceed physical limits by such margins, the resulting electricity shortfall can destabilize decarbonization strategies and reach deep into society and the economy. Because of the long lead times to develop projects and new electricity systems including storage and the long operational life of these assets, errors in projections will affect multiple generations. The heavy demands on society (e.g., qualified labor), the economy, and the environment mean that corrective paths may become costly or unfeasible for a country or region. The framework provides policymakers, planners, and communities with a rigorous yet simple tool to set credible targets; compare technology choices; and balance trade-offs between space use, biodiversity, and energy security. It also enables collaboration across engineering, economics, and environmental sciences, helping to deliver on climate goals without overpromising or undermining trust in energy transition.

Carlos Simão Ferreira, Faculty Aerospace Engineering, Delft University of Technology, Delft, the Netherlands
Gunner Chr. Larsen, Response, Aero-elasticity, Control and Hydrodynamics, DTU Wind, Roskilde, Denmark
Jens Nørkær Sørensen, Section of Aero- and Fluid Dynamics, DTU Wind and Energy Systems, Lyngby, Denmark

Cell Reports, 100573, November 24, 2025

Download original document: “A theoretical upper limit for offshore wind energy extraction”