The global wind turbine market will only grow by 10 percent annually in 2011-16 and not 11 percent as earlier estimated, wind energy specialist MAKE Consulting said in a report.
Denmark-based MAKE Consulting lowered its forecast for the amount of wind turbine capacity that will be connected to the grid in the period up to 2016 to 315 gigawatts from an earlier forecast of 324 GW given three months ago.
The new forecast is primarily based on reduced expectations for the development in the United States and China.
In the United States, current production and investment tax credits will run out by the end of 2012 and it is uncertain if they will be prolonged.
“In a scenario with lower global growth as forecast by the IMF, low gas prices and high electricity generation reserve margins coupled with lack of policy certainty after 2012, we have reduced our outlook for the U.S. wind market in 2013-16 significantly,” MAKE director Steen Broust told Reuters.
The reserve margin is capacity to generate more energy than the system normally needs to meet peak demand.
Increased grid-connection activity in the first six months of 2011 has led to an upgrade of the forecast for new grid-linked wind power capacity in China, which has also been moved forward in the period.
“The forecast for new erected capacity in China, on the other hand, sees a significant reduction based on tightened conditions for project financing, and the introduction of stricter permitting and connection standards and procedures, thereby heavily impacting the supply chain,” MAKE said.
In March, MAKE said that Denmark’s Vestas Wind Systems had retained its world-leading market position last year despite fierce competition from Chinese rivals rising up the ranks .