State green power plan will cost consumers billions

Reports says $115B energy switch likely to miss deadline, raise utility bills

Retired schoolteacher Sharon Reid and her husband, Dewitt, a retired Marine major, pay $170 in a typical month —- and some months more than $230 —- to cool and light their 2,000-square-foot, tri-level home in Vista.

Without making any changes in lifestyle, their electricity bill is likely to increase by $45 a month on average as California overhauls its power grid and tries to shift the source of one-third of its electricity from fossil fuels to green sources by 2020.

A new state report says California electricity rates will rise about 27 percent by 2020, with close to half the increase triggered by the switch to green energy.

Reid said she understands what the state is trying to do. “I do believe in green energy,” she said, but “27 percent is a heck of a lot of money.”

Reid said the huge jolt headed for millions of electric customers in San Diego and Riverside counties, and throughout the state, suggests that California is trying to make the switch too fast.

In a report issued last month, the California Public Utilities Commission examined in detail the costs associated with moving to a grid filled with sun, wind, geothermal and other clean, renewable power. And the regulatory agency concluded that the price tag for the accelerated green venture will approach $115 billion for new power plants and lines, and other utility infrastructure.

The commission also concluded in the 96-page report that California isn’t likely to reach the goal until several years after the target date. There is just too much to build, in too little time, with too many obstacles, to realistically expect that the target will be met.

“Achieving 33 percent (green power) by the year 2020 is highly ambitious, given the magnitude of the infrastructure buildout required,” the report said. “The magnitude of the infrastructure that California will have to plan, permit, procure, develop and integrate in the next 10 years is immense and unprecedented.”

A 10-year process

Stuart Hemphill, senior vice president for power procurement for Southern California Edison, said the notion that the 2020 target won’t be met is perhaps the report’s most significant finding.

But it’s consistent with the way Edison expects the state’s green rush to play out. Even though Edison has the biggest head start on meeting the target, with 16 percent of its electricity coming from green sources, Hemphill said the utility can’t build transmission lines fast enough to hit 33 percent 11 years from now.

Edison serves 14 million people in Riverside and several other counties.

The report cited the lack of wires to plug into developing solar and wind farms in remote mountains and deserts as one of the biggest hurdles to be overcome statewide. The study concluded that California needs seven new lines to meet the target —- and just three are in the planning or construction stages.

That’s concerning, Hemphill said, because “it takes 10 years to build a transmission line, from its original concept to actually energizing the line.”

One of the three in the works is San Diego Gas & Electric Co.’s $1.9 billion, 120-mile Sunrise Powerlink, which is expected to run from El Centro in Imperial County through southern San Diego County to metropolitan San Diego. SDG&E spokeswoman Jennifer Briscoe said the 500-kilovolt line will put SDG&E in position to meet the target on time.

SDG&E serves 3.4 million people in San Diego County and southern Orange County.

“We were first in line to voluntarily commit to the 33 percent by 2020,” Briscoe said, referring to a promise the company made at a state hearing on the power line last fall. SDG&E is at 10 percent now, she said.

Environmental and community groups relentlessly campaigned against the Sunrise Powerlink, insisting that the wires would be used to import fossil fuel energy, not green power. The project received the green light from the Public Utilities Commission and federal Bureau of Land Management. SDG&E still needs the approval of the U.S. Forest Service to cross national forest land, and that decision is anticipated shortly.

Trade-offs

The enormous opposition to Sunrise is an example of the kind of obstacles the report says could prevent California from hitting 33 percent by 2020.

Aside from new wires, reaching the goal will require tripling the amount of sun, wind, geothermal and other green electricity being generated across the state. And that means building a lot of large solar and wind farms. While there is widespread public support for shifting to green energy, opposition is building against specific projects being proposed for generating that electricity.

“The CPUC report quantifies the policy dilemma facing all local jurisdictions and environmental resource groups,” said Carrie Downey, energy chairwoman for the San Diego Association of Governments, a regional planning agency. “Do we abandon increasing renewable energy sources or do we allow long, unsightly transmission lines and large-scale renewable wind farms or solar arrays in parts of pristine backcountry to produce enough energy?”

The Coronado councilwoman said the report makes clear that while conservation and solar panels on the roofs of homes and businesses can help, those sources can’t generate enough energy to negate the need for large power plants in remote areas.

“If San Diego wants the increases to be through renewable energy sources, we need to start siting them in large areas now and assisting in avoiding the NIMBYism that precludes much of the necessary infrastructure development required for the region and the state to reach the impressive 33 percent goal by 2020,” Downey said.

Governor sticking to his guns

As elusive as that goal may seem, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger does not want to change it, said Lisa Page, a spokeswoman for the governor in Sacramento.

“The governor knows that meeting California’s goal of 33 percent of renewable energy by 2020 is ambitious, but believes it is also essential to meeting our environmental and energy security goals,” Page said.

Schwarzenegger believes the lofty target still can be hit if the state makes it easier for power companies to secure permits for green electricity, she said. And, to that end, he is supporting legislation to streamline the permit approval process.

The governor signed an executive order last fall setting the 33 percent target, and the California Air Resources Board has incorporated it into a strategy for slashing greenhouse gas emissions that scientists blame for global warming. But legislation still is needed to make the goal a mandate for utilities, instead of just something to shoot for.

For now, utilities are bound by a state mandate to boost the green proportion of their electricity supplies to 20 percent by next year.

Reaching that much lower, mandatory target also is proving difficult.

Edison is closest to the 20 percent target, with its 16 percent green power component. But even the Los Angeles-based utility won’t make it, Hemphill said.

And the other major utilities aren’t even close.

However, state law provides a way for excusing utilities from being fined for not complying, if the reason they miss is a lack of wires.

As for the 33-percent-by-2020 goal that may become a mandate, the report does not outline a blueprint for getting there. It does say the cost will be a few billion dollars less if a greater share of green power comes from wind turbines instead of big expensive solar farms and even more expensive rooftop solar panels.

At the same time, the report says getting to 33 percent is not an either-or proposition; all of the green sources will have to play a role.

By Dave Downey

North County Times

11 July 2009

Tags: Wind power, Wind energy

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