Cloud over county wind turbine? Commissioner Ward, others, raise questions
Planted off County Road 114 in Mount Vernon Township, Larry Greden’s got a wind turbine for sale.
It’s for sale because it, for the most part, doesn’t work. There isn’t enough wind at its position to make it profitable, and while Greden says he won’t lose money in his four-year wind project because of tax incentives, he isn’t making any.
And several hundred yards from the turbine that won’t turn, the county is poised to erect its own. In a project that’s been in the works for three years, the county is just about to consider entering into a $3.6 million development agreement for two turbines within sight of Greden’s.
The deal would cost the county about $150,000 up front, with reimbursement from investors promising to cover all but about $20,000. The county would own one percent for the first ten years, then 90 percent after ten years.
A 2005 study done by WindLogics, Inc., shows that an 80-meter turbine would harness power about 40 percent of the time with an average wind speed of 7.39 meters per second. In layman’s terms: it would work, and it would generate a profit. Development company Juhl Winds estimated that the county would realize about $1.6 million over 20 years.
The WindLogic’s study was done using “virtual” data, modeling weather patterns with archived data from 40 years. It doesn’t rely on site-specific measurements, like information gathered from a meteorological tower at the spot, something that has drawn questions from critics.
Meteorological tower
The county did try to get some site-specific data from meteorological towers from the Minnesota Department of Commerce, which is a typical way to make sure that wind speed estimates are accurate. But after almost two years, the county found that the towers weren’t working and thus, no site-specific data.
Greden’s turbine, on the other hand, does have equipment to measure wind speeds and directions at about 100 feet up, information he said he’s offered the county. What it shows is that his turbine is only generating power about 25 percent of the time, and isn’t netting a profit.
“If they’re so gung-ho about buying a wind turbine, buy mine,” he said. “It’s for sale.”
Winona County Commissioner Marcia Ward said earlier this month that lingering questions about the project haven’t yet been answered. She asked whether the Mount Vernon Township site was a good spot for the county to invest, when weather data shows higher wind speeds in the southwestern portions of the county.
And last week, when county leaders met to work out kinks in the contract with Juhl, they learned that the project didn’t have any financial investors yet. While Juhl representativ es said they’d been led to believe the county had found its own investors, county leaders had thought that Juhl would line up the partners.
“The ducks aren’t in a row,” said Greden. “The big ducks. We’re talking about the wind, that data that says there’s wind. We’re talking investors. The cart’s in front of all the horses.” Alternative energy is good, he said, but “it still has to make sense, and it still has to be profitable.”
The science
Critics to the project have asked whether the WindLogic study, without site-specific measurements, was enough to build on.
And a closer look at the WindLogic information shows that it was tailored to fit a different project. Back in 2005 when it was completed, the county was looking at an 80-meter Suzlon S.88/2000 model turbine.
In 2006 the county found out that it would have to wait for that model, and began looking for companies that could help find the in-demand turbines for the project.
Now the county is looking at erecting two, two-blade Nordic turbines, described on the company’s web site as only 70 meters high. The shorter the tower, the lower the wind speed, raising questions about what data the county has to shore up the shorter towers.
WindLogic representatives told Ward that they’d look into added information that could be gathered about a shorter, 70-meter tower, which will likely be provided before the County Board meets on Thursday at 3 p.m. to consider approving the development agreement with Juhl.
And Ward said that WindLogic representativ es also spoke candidly about whether the 2005 study was sufficient without site-specific measurements. Site-specific data, or “ground truths,” are usually required by lenders and banks before investing in such a project, she said.
“This [WindLogics study] is just a model,” said Ward. She said that the trees and valleys and waterways in Winona County all affect wind data, and while further analysis of a site might not be that important in flat North Dakota, “in Southeastern Minnesota, it’s critical. If I was an investor, that’s what I’d need to know.”
And Ward said that, when it comes to investing tax money, she’s not willing to gamble. “We’re assuming too many things with this project,” she said. “You don’t assume with taxpayer money.”
The 60-page WindLogic study includes a disclaimer attached to the information: “We cannot guarantee the accuracy of historical weather data,” reads the study. “Historical weather information does not necessarily allow accurate prediction of future weather patterns. WE ARE THEREFORE PROVIDING THIS REPORT TO YOU WITHOUT ANY EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE OR MERCHANTABILITY.”
Decommissioning: who pays?
The subject of wind energy was recently the topic at a Winona County Planning Commission meeting, when the wind turbine requirements in the new zoning ordinance were discussed.
The proposed ordinance would require owners to secure bonds for 105 percent of the cost of the project to be used to take the turbines down, if necessary. That decommissioning money isn’t included in the proposed contract with Juhl, but may be discussed Thursday when commissioners consider the project.
Juhl representatives didn’t return phone calls from the Winona Post, and WindLogics representativ es were hesitant to answer questions as well. Check out the weekend edition of the Winona Post for an update on the full story.
By Sarah Elmquist
12 November 2008
Tags: Wind power, Wind energy
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